GOP GAINS IN POLLS – AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  GOP solidifying support from voters who may have drifted away.  From The Wall Street Journal:

Republicans have solidified support among voters who had drifted from the party in recent elections, putting the GOP in position for a strong comeback in November's mid-term campaign, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The findings suggest that public opinion has hardened in advance of the 2010 elections, making it tougher for Democrats to translate their legislative successes, or a tentatively improving U.S. economy, into gains among voters.

Republicans have reassembled their coalition by reconnecting with independents, seniors, blue-collar voters, suburban women and small town and rural voters—all of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elections, in which Republicans lost control of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP control of Congress.

And...

A big shift is evident among independents, who at this point in the 2006 campaign favored Democratic control of Congress rather than Republican control, 40% to 24%. In this poll, independents favored the GOP, 38% to 30%.

Suburban women favored Democratic control four years ago by a 24-point margin. In the latest survey, they narrowly favored Republicans winning the House. A similar turnaround was seen among voters 65 and older.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But the election is five and a half months away, about three lifetimes in politics.  Don't underestimate this White House, or blind luck.  Suddenly, the Senate race in Florida is up in the air.  So is the one in Pennsylvania.   Obama could pull a few presidential gimmicks.  And divisions within the GOP could do damage.  The party itself remains unpopular:

While the survey results foreshadow a strong showing for Republicans, they also show that voters were far more motivated by their frustration with Democrats and government in general than by an affinity for the GOP. 

Just 30% in the survey said they felt positively about the Republican Party—a smaller share than for the Democratic Party and the tea party movement.

Of those who want to see Republicans control the House, less than one-third said that was because they support the GOP and its candidates.

Rather, nearly two-thirds said they were motivated by opposition to Mr. Obama and Democratic policies.

You can't run on negatives forever.  The Republican Party must create a positive program and image.  Otherwise, it's at the mercy of the other guy failing, which is not a recipe for continued success.

May 13, 2010